>> THE TEMPERATURE OF AMERICAN POLITICS HAS BEEN RISING FOR SOME TIME.

THE UNITED STATES HAS SEEN TROUBLING ATTACKS ACROSS THE SPECTRUM INCLUDING ANOTHER ATTEMPT ON PRESIDENT TRUMP'S LIFE.

AMERICANS ARE ASKING WHAT IS CAUSING THE DANGEROUS UPTICK.

IN A RECENT ARTICLE PROFESSOR BARBARA S WALTER ANSWERS THAT QUESTION.

SHE JOINS HARI SREENIVASAN TO DISCUSS.

>> THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.

YOU WROTE A SUBSTACK TITLED "POLITICAL VIOLENCE IS HERE TO STAY" , AMERICA HAS ALL THE CONDITIONS OF VIOLENCE AND NO SIGNS OF CHANGE.

WE ARE HAVING THE CONVERSATION IN THE WAKE OF THE THIRD PRESIDENTIAL ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT .

WHAT DOES THIS SAY ABOUT POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN THE U. S. TODAY?

>> WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT POLITICAL VIOLENCE IS THAT HAPPENS UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

IT HAPPENS MOST FREQUENTLY IN COUNTRIES THAT ARE PSEUDO- DEMOCRACIES.

MOST COUNTRIES THINK FULL DEMOCRACIES ARE REALLY SAFE AND YOU DON'T HAVE A LOT OF VIOLENCE.

THE CLOSER YOU GET TO BE IN A NORTH KOREA OR CHINA THE MORE VIOLENCE YOU WILL SEE.

THAT IS NOT TRUE.

AUTOCRACIES TEND TO BE ALMOST AS PEACEFUL AND STABLE AS FULL, HEALTHY DEMOCRACIES.

IF YOU LOOK WHERE THE VIOLENCE HAPPENS, IT ALL HAPPENS IN THE MIDDLE.

IT SPIKES AS DEMOCRACIES ARE DECLINING, ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARE DECLINING RAPIDLY.

ONCE THEY GET TO THE MIDDLE ZONE THAT IS PEAK VIOLENCE.

THAT IS BASED ON PRETTY MUCH EVERY DATA SET OUT THERE.

THAT IS THE FIRST AND MOST IMPORTANT CONDITION.

THE SECOND IS WHEN POLITICS AND THESE PARTIAL DEMOCRACIES GETS DEFINED BY IDENTITY RATHER THAN IDEOLOGY.

IT IS WHEN VOTERS JOIN PARTIES NOT BECAUSE THEY ARE CONSERVATIVE OR LIBERAL.

THAT IS A HEALTHY POLITICAL SYSTEM.

IT'S WHEN THEY JOIN A PARTY BECAUSE THEY ARE BLACK OR WHITE, CHRISTIAN OR MUSLIM, THOSE ARE THE MOST DESTABILIZING CONDITIONS.

A PARTIAL DEMOCRACY WITH THESE REALLY TRIBAL POLITICS.

YOU ADD A FEW ADDITIONAL FEATURES.

YOU ADD EASILY ACCESSIBLE GUNS.

THE UNITED STATES THE UNITED STATES HAS THE HIGHEST PER CAPITA GUN OWNERSHIP OF ANY COUNTRY IN THE WORLD BY A LOT.

GUN OWNERSHIP IS RISING ACROSS A WIDER SWATH OF PEOPLE.

IT USED TO BE MOST GUNS OF THE UNITED STATES WERE HELD BY A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION, THEY TEND TO BE CONSERVATIVE.

SINCE 2024 YOU HAVE STARTED TO SEE MORE WOMEN, MINORITIES, MORE PEOPLE ON THE LEFT BUYING GUNS.

THE FOURTH THING WE KNOW IS THAT THE TYPE OF VIOLENCE THAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY, YOU CAN CALL IT DOMESTIC TERRORISM, YOU CAN CALL IT POLITICAL VIOLENCE, IS OVERWHELMINGLY CAUSED BY WHAT WE CALL LOAN ACTORS.

THESE ARE INDIVIDUALS ACTING ALONE .

THEY ARE OVERWHELMINGLY YOUNG, MALE, AND THEY HAVE BEEN RADICALIZED ONLINE.

>> LET'S BREAK THAT DOWN A LITTLE BIT.

YOU SAY THE DATA FROM THE NATIONAL CONSORTIUM OF RESPONSE FOR TERRORISM SHOWS THAT EVENTS INCREASED BY MORE THAN 30%.

A DIFFERENT ANALYSIS FOUND THAT MORE THAN 520 PLOTS AND VIOLENT INCIDENTS HAPPEN IN JUST THE FIRST HALF OF 2025.

THAT IS UP 40% WITHIN A YEARS TIME.

CLEARLY THERE ARE MORE PEOPLE WHO ARE WILLING TO SAY THAT POLITICAL VIOLENCE IS OKAY.

>> YES.

THEN THE QUESTION IS, WHY DO THEY THINK THIS?

I THINK THERE'S A MULTITUDE OF REASONS.

ONE IS THAT WE HAVE A PRESIDENT AND PARTY LEADERSHIP ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE WHO ARE WILLING TO CONDONE IT, NORMALIZE IT, GIVE IMMUNITY TO IT, AND THAT WAS NOT THE CASE EVEN 20 YEARS AGO.

WHEN THERE WAS AN ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT ON A POLITICIAN, BOTH PARTIES WOULD COME TOGETHER AND IMMEDIATELY CONDEMN IT, IMMEDIATELY SHOW REAL SYMPATHY TOWARDS THE TARGET.

NOW YOU DON'T SEE THAT ANYMORE.

NOW IT'S, WELL HE DESERVED IT .

OR THAT'S WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU DO XY AND Z. IT'S THIS ENVIRONMENT OF HATE ALSO .

WE ARE IN A PLACE WHERE MEMBERS OF EACH PARTY SEE THE OTHER AS THEIR ENEMY.

THEY DO NOT WANT THEIR CHILDREN TO MARRY SOMEONE FROM THE OTHER PARTY.

THOSE ATTITUDES ARE MUCH STRONGER ON THE RIGHT THAN ON THE LEFT SO IT IS NOT EQUAL, BUT IT IS GROWING ON THE LEFT.

JUST AS GUN OWNERSHIP IS GROWING ON THE LEFT.

YOU HAVE A SENSE OF HATE .

A SENSE OF VIOLENCE IN PURSUIT OF YOUR POLITICAL IDEALS IS JUSTIFIED.

THAT IS IN PART WHY YOU SEE IT GROWING.

>> WE'VE BEEN HEARING ABOUT THE IMPACT OF SOCIAL MEDIA AND THE FILTER BUBBLE AND THE ECHO CHAMBER SPECIFICALLY AROUND YOUNG MEN WHO SEEM IMPRESSIONABLE.

THEY HAVE THEIR OWN FRUSTRATIONS ABOUT THE ECONOMY, JOB LOSS, WHATEVER IT IS AND THEY SEEM TO GO DOWN THESE RABBIT HOLES.

IS THERE ANY IDEA OF HOW THAT IS CONTRIBUTING SPECIFICALLY TO THIS SORT OF LONE WOLF TYPE OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE?

>> I THINK THE SINGLE DRIVE BIGGEST DRIVER OF THIS INCREASE IN POLITICAL VIOLENCE IS THE SOCIAL MEDIA ENVIRONMENT FULL STOP.

WE KNOW THAT YOUNG MEN ARE STRUGGLING.

WE ARE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHY THAT IS THE CASE BUT THEY ARE DISPROPORTIONATELY DRAWN TO A LOT OF THESE EXTREME SITES AND CHAT ROOMS.

WHAT USUALLY HAPPENS IS THERE IS SOME UNDERLYING GRIEVANCE .

HERE IN THE UNITED STATES THEY'VE LOST THEIR JOB .

THEY ARE LOOKING AROUND AND THEY ARE SEEING IMMIGRANTS IN THEIR COMMUNITY WHO ARE GETTING THE JOBS .

THEY SEE PEOPLE BECOMING BILLIONAIRES IN SILICON VALLEY AND A LOT OF THEM WERE NOT BORN HERE AND DON'T LOOK LIKE THEM.

THEY HAVE THAT GRIEVANCE.

WHY IS THIS NOT HAPPENING TO ME.

WHY AM I GETTING WORSE OFF.

MY COUNTRY IS CHANGING.

I WANT IT BACK.

THEN THEY GO ONLINE AND WHAT STUDIES HAVE SHOWN IS THEY HAVE TRACKED EXACTLY HOW THEY BECOME MORE RADICAL THE LONGER THEY STAY ONLINE.

IT DOES NOT HAPPEN INITIALLY.

THEY MIGHT GO ONLINE AND THEY WILL TAPE SOMETHING LIKE MUSLIMS IN AMERICA.

THE ALGORITHM FEEDS THEM MORE AND MORE EXTREME.

IT DOES NOT STAY NEUTRAL.

MORE EXTREME MATERIAL AND THAT IS HOW IT HAPPENS.

THE BIG QUESTIONS THAT RESEARCHERS HAVE IS THAT, OKAY, YOU BECOME MORE RADICAL IN YOUR BELIEFS AND IDEOLOGY AND HATRED, BUT THERE'S A BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN YOUR ATTITUDE AND ACTUALLY PICKING UP A GUN AND KILLING SOMEBODY.

WE KNOW ONLY A MINORITY OF PEOPLE THAT ARE RADICALIZED ONLINE ACTUALLY TAKE THAT LIST --LAST STEP BUT THEY DO.

THAT COULD BE PARTLY A MENTAL HEALTH ISSUE.

YOU LOOK AT A LOT OF THESE LOAN ACTORS AND THEY DON'T HAVE STABLE LIVES.

THEY DON'T SEEM TO BE OPERATED ON STABLE GROUND SO THERE IS PROBABLY AN ELEMENT OF THAT AS WELL.

>> HOW DOES DESPAIR KEY INTO POLITICAL VIOLENCE?

SOME OF THE PEOPLE THAT HAVE BEEN BEHIND THE ATTACKS LIKE ATTACKS ON CHARLIE KIRK, THE PRESIDENT, UNITED HEALTHCARE CEO THERE IS JUST SAY FRUSTRATION THEY EXPRESS WHERE IT SEEMS LIKE THEY ARE IN A SYSTEM THAT IS NOT GOING TO WORK SO THEY FEEL LIKE TAKING THEIR MATTERS INTO THEIR OWN HANDS.

>> YOU CALL IT DESPAIR.

I FRAME IT AS A LOSS OF HOPE.

PEOPLE WILL WORK IN THE SYSTEM.

THEY WILL GO THROUGH CONVENTIONAL POLITICAL CHANNELS AS LONG AS THEY THINK THERE IS SOME HOPE THAT THAT WILL ACTUALLY FIX THE PROBLEM THEY CARE ABOUT.

WHEN THEY COME TO BELIEVE AND DESPAIR THAT ANYTHING WILL EVER CHANGE, SUDDENLY THEY SHIFT.

THEY GO FROM, I'M NOT GOING TO WORK WITHIN THE SYSTEM ANYMORE.

I'M GOING TO TURN TO VIOLENCE.

IF YOU LOOK HISTORICALLY AT THE VIOLENT TERRORIST GROUPS, HAMAS, THE IRA, THE TIGERS THEY DID NOT START AS VIOLENT ORGANIZATIONS.

THEY STARTED AS POLITICAL ORGANIZATIONS.

THE IRA HAS BEEN AROUND SINCE THE 1920S AND THEY ACTUALLY MODELED THEIR ORGANIZATION AGAINST THE CIVIL RIGHTS MOVEMENT IN THE UNITED STATES.

THEY HAD MARCHES, STRIKES, THEY DID ALL OF THAT.

IT WAS ONLY AFTER THEY SAW THAT NOTHING WAS EVER GOING TO CHANGE AS LONG AS THEY WORKED IN THE SYSTEM THAT THE EXTREME MEMBERS OF THE GROUP WHO WERE IN THE BACKGROUND SAYING IT'S NOT GOING TO WORK YOU NEED TO TURN TO VIOLENCE, THE MODERATES IN THE GROUP EVENTUALLY SAID YOU ARE PROBABLY RIGHT.

THAT IS WHEN YOU SEE THE SHIFT TO VIOLENCE.

DESPAIR PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE .

>> ONE OF THE IMPORTANT THINGS WE'VE BEEN FAMILIAR WITH THE PAST FEW YEARS IS THE RISE OF CLINICAL VIOLENCE FROM FAR RIGHT GROUPS.

WE SAW WHEN THE PRESIDENT CAME INTO OFFICE THE FIRST TIME AROUND WE CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASE IN THAT BUT WHAT YOU ALSO DOCUMENT HERE IS THAT THERE IS AN UPTICK IN POLITICAL VIOLENCE FROM THE LEFT.

HOW SIGNIFICANT IS THAT?

>> IT IS SMALL BUT MEANINGFUL.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF CLINICAL VIOLENCE , SINCE ABOUT 2008 HAS BEEN PERPETRATED BY THE FAR RIGHT.

EVEN TODAY AFTER AN UPTICK ON THE LEFT, IT IS MUCH MORE LEASED WILL HAS KILLED MORE PEOPLE BY A MAGNITUDE OF 10 SO IT IS MUCH BIGGER ON THE RIGHT.

THE LEFT HAD BEEN QUIET UNTIL RECENTLY.

SINCE 2024, SINCE TRUMP CAME BACK TO OFFICE YOU ARE SEEING MORE ATTACKS FROM THE LEFT THAT CONTINUES IN 2025.

THERE IS ONE STATISTIC THAT SHOWS THAT 2024 WAS THE FIRST YEAR WHERE THERE WERE MORE ATTACKS FROM THE FAR LEFT THAN THE FAR RIGHT.

THAT IS IN LARGE PART BECAUSE ATTACKS FROM THE FAR RIGHT DECREASED IN 2024 .

THEIR GUY IS IN POWER.

THEY HAVE THE KEYS TO THE CADILLAC SO THEY DON'T REALLY NEED TO TURN TO VIOLENCE RIGHT NOW, BUT STILL YOU ARE SEEING IT FROM BOTH SIDES.

THEY ARE DIFFERENT .

THE WAY THEY USE VIOLENCE IS DIFFERENT AND WHO THEY TARGET IS DIFFERENT.

THE FAR RIGHT HAS OVERWHELMINGLY BEEN VIOLENCE DRIVEN BY WHITE NATIONALISM.

IT TENDS TO BE TARGETED AT MINORITIES.

THE THREE BIG TARGETS ARE BLACK AMERICANS , JEWS AND LGBTQ CITIZENS.

LATINOS ARE ALSO INCLUDED IN THEIR, WOMEN, THESE ARE WHITE NATIONALISTS WHO WANT TO REASSERT WHITE MALE DOMINANCE AND THIS IS THE WAY SOME OF THEM ARE CHOOSING TO DO THAT.

THEY TEND TO TARGET INDIVIDUALS.

THE LEFT TENDS TO TARGET INFRASTRUCTURE AND THE GOVERNMENT .

IT IS LAW ENFORCEMENT, POLITICIANS WHO ARE VOTING IN WAYS THEY DO NOT AGREE WITH.

IT IS DIFFERENT AND IT IS DRIVEN BY A DIFFERENT SET OF GRIEVANCES ON BOTH SIDES.

>> WE SEEM TO COLLECTIVELY PUT A SOCIAL DISTANCE TO ACTS OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE.

WE CAPTURE LOANABLE FACTORS QUICKLY, GIVEN VERY PUBLIC TRIALS AND LONG SENTENCES.

IT DOES NOT SEEM TO BE DETERRING MORE ACTS.

>> IF YOU LOOK AT THE DATA OVER TIME WE ARE NOT CONSISTENT IN HOW WE PROSECUTE THESE GROUPS.

THE PREVIOUS PEAK OF DOMESTIC TERRORISM WAS 1995.

THAT IS WHEN TIMOTHY McVEIGH BOMBED THE FEDERAL BUILDING IN OKLAHOMA CITY.

THAT WAS A WAKE-UP CALL TO THE FBI.

AFTER THAT THEY HAD A VERY WELL- ORGANIZED, AGGRESSIVE CAMPAIGN TO FIGURE OUT WHO THE EXTREMISTS WERE WITHIN THE COUNTRY, HOW THEY WERE OPERATING, AND THEY WENT AFTER THEM.

HE SAW A SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN THESE GROUPS IN MEMBERSHIP INTO THESE GROUPS.

THAT CHANGED UNDER TRUMP .

HE DOES NOT WANT THESE GROUPS PROSECUTED.

HIS ATTITUDE TO JANUARY 6 PEOPLE WHO ATTACKED THE CAPITOL, HE GAVE THEM IMMUNITY.

WE DID GO AFTER THEM AND HE RELEASED THEM.

HE HAS TOLD OTHERS THAT THEY WOULD HAVE IMMUNITY IF THEY SUPPORTED HIM UNCONDITIONALLY.

IF YOU WERE TO LOOK AT THE DATA, TRUMP HAS GIVEN THE ORDER THAT WE ARE NOT GOING AFTER THESE GROUPS ANYMORE.

AGAIN, THEIR ABILITY TO OPERATE AND GROW AND TRAIN IS RELATED TO HOW MUCH FREEDOM AND TOLERANCE THEY ARE GIVEN.

RIGHT NOW THEY ARE GIVEN A LOT OF TOLERANCE.

>> THE MORE TROUBLING PART OF THE RECENT NOTE, YOU KIND OF ENDS THE PIECE BY SAYING THE UNITED STATES IS ENTERING A PERIOD OF 10 TO 20 YEARS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE.

HOW DO WE KNOW THAT WE'VE GONE FROM ISOLATED INCIDENTS TO ELEVATED VIOLENCE TO CIVIL WAR, PUT US IN THAT CONTINUUM.

>> IT IS OVERWHELMINGLY INSURGENCY IS THE REAL WARFARE.

IT IS MALICIOUS, PARAMILITARY GROUPS.

SOMETIMES THEY ARE WORKING TOGETHER BUT SOMETIMES THEY ARE DOING THEIR OWN THING, SORT OF PARALLEL PLAY.

IT IS INTERESTING.

I ACTUALLY THINK THE RISK OF CIVIL WAR UNDER TRUMP HAS DECLINED SOMEWHAT BECAUSE THE MILITIAS AND THE GROUPS THAT WERE TRAINING FOR WAR WERE ALL ON THE FAR RIGHT.

THE PROUD BOYS AND THE ACCELERATION IS AND ALL OF THESE GROUP'S THAT ACTUALLY WANT TODAY'S CIVIL WAR TO ESSENTIALLY CLEAN HOUSE AND MAKE AMERICA PURE AND WHITE AGAIN THEY HAVE BECOME QUITE QUIET UNDER TRUMP AND AGAIN THAT IS BECAUSE THEIR GRIEVANCES HAVE DECLINED.

IN THEIR PLACE YOU ARE SEEING MORE OF THESE LOAN ACTORS.

LOAN ACTORS FROM A CIVIL WAR PERSPECTIVE, INSURGENCY GUERRILLA WARFARE PERSPECTIVE ARE LESS THREATENING.

THEY ARE NOT ORGANIZED FOR THAT, THEY ARE NOT TRAINING FOR THAT.

THEY WOULD BE MUCH LESS LETHAL THAN VERY WELL-TRAINED MILITIAS WHICH EVERY STATE HAS.

SO WHO IS IN THE WHITE HOUSE MATTERS .

THE FAR RIGHT, THESE WHITE NATIONALISTS , IF WE WERE TO GET A DEMOCRAT IN THE WHITE HOUSE AGAIN, IF THAT DEMOCRAT WAS A WOMAN OF COLOR, FOR EXAMPLE, THEY ARE READY TO TRAIN AGAIN.

THERE IS TO PREVENT AMERICA FROM BECOMING A NONWHITE MAJORITY COUNTRY WHICH IS GOING TO HAPPEN IN THE NEXT 20 YEARS.

THEY WILL JUST BE REINVIGORATED.

IT REALLY DEPENDS ON WHO IS IN POWER AND HOW THREATENED THOSE REALLY RADICAL GROUPS THAT ARE WELL ARMED, TRAINED, ORGANIZED, WHO WANT WAR, WHETHER THEY FEEL THREATENED OR NOT.

>> BARBARA THANK YOU SO MUCH .

>> THANK YOU.

IT WAS A PLEASURE TO BE HERE.